Hamas claimed on Friday that it was ready to engage in negotiations that have dragged on for two weeks in Doha as a ceasefire holds in Gaza. Hamas is playing for time, and it is receiving a ceasefire for Ramadan.,
There is no urgency in Jerusalem to do a deal with Hamas. The US is focused on Ukraine at the moment and the chances of a ceasefire deal with Moscow. As such, Hamas sought to grab the spotlight on March 14 with a claim it was ready to release Edan Alexander, a hostage held in Gaza who holds US and Israeli citizenship.
Hamas said it had “received a proposal from mediators yesterday to resume negotiations, and responded responsibly and positively.” This apparently refers to various proposals floated since March 1. On March 1, the first phase of the ceasefire and hostage deal ended. Thirty-three hostages had been released in 42 days. Israel refused to move to phase two of the deal, which would have seen the rest of the hostages released and an end to the war and the IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor.
In general, Israel has been unable to get a deal with Hamas and has waited for the US to make the move. US President Donald Trump had been keen to see the hostages released, but he can’t wave a magic wand.
Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, was able to get the mid-January ceasefire deal to materialize. Reports indicate that he has sought to bridge the gaps between Israel refusing to move to phase two and Hamas refusing to extend phase one. Reports say that the proposals in Doha relate to a deal to free several living hostages and some deceased hostages for up to 60 days or more of ceasefire. This would represent far fewer hostages than were released in previous deals.
Clearly, the Hamas goal is to get Israel to agree to less of its people being returned.
Hamas thinks that the US hostages held in Gaza are more important
Hamas thinks that the US hostages held in Gaza are more important because they can use a release of these hostages to potentially gain something. Hamas said on March 14 that it would release Edan Alexander, whom it called a “Zionist soldier,” and the remains of four other “dual citizenship” hostages. These are presumed to be deceased American hostages held in Gaza.
Reports have named them as Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judith Weinstein, and her husband, Gadi Haggai. Neutra’s parents spoke at the Republican convention in 2024. He was later declared to have been killed on October 7. “We reaffirm our full readiness to engage in negotiations and reach a comprehensive agreement on the issues of the second phase, and call for obligating the occupation to fully implement its commitments,” Hamas said.
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office put out a statement on Friday in response to the apparent Hamas offer. “While Israel accepted the Witkoff framework, Hamas persists in its refusal and continues to wage psychological warfare against hostage families. The Prime Minister will convene the ministerial team tomorrow evening for a detailed briefing from the negotiating team, and to decide on steps to free the hostages and achieve all our war objectives.”
Meanwhile, other issues relating to the hostages appear to be in motion. Reports that Adam Boehler had withdrawn his nomination to be the US administration’s hostage envoy. However, it appears he will stay focused on US citizens detained or held abroad.
Boehler had been in the spotlight in early March when reports emerged that the US was having direct talks with Hamas. Israel’s government was put in a bind with this report. Jerusalem is afraid of angering Trump or even pushing back on Trump’s moves. As such, it was clear Israel’s government didn’t like the idea of an envoy talking directly to Hamas, but they figured they would let this go on and hope that Boehler would misstep.
That’s what happened when Boehler went on Israeli media for interviews. It didn’t go well, and he was reported to be sidelined. It wasn’t clear if this was because of Israeli pressure or perhaps because he was perceived to have horned in on Witkoff’s work or muddied the waters of the talks.
The question is whether Hamas said it would release Alexander and other Americans in order to try to keep the Boehler track of talks ongoing or if Hamas is trying to get a separate deal with the US. It appears Hamas was putting out claims that it was not communicating in public. This has left mediators nonplussed in the US and Israel. Witkoff characterized the Hamas demands as “unrealistic,” reports said.
So far, there is a lack of clarity on what Hamas is up to. What does seem clear is that Hamas has received a Ramadan ceasefire and not had to turn over any hostages for weeks. Hamas is recuperating and recovering and recruiting. In Israel, demonstrators who support the hostages and their families turned out on March 15 to demand that the hostages be returned.
Even as Hamas recruits, it continues to threaten Israel. The IDF said on March 15 that “two terrorists were identified operating a drone that posed a threat to IDF troops in the area of Beit Lahia. The IDF struck the terrorists.” Sources in Gaza claimed up to nine people were killed, which would make this the most deadly day of the ceasefire in weeks. Hamas believes it can keep the ceasefire and not have to turn over any hostages.
It is unclear if there is a quiet understanding behind the scenes on all sides that Ramadan will be quiet and Hamas will not have to do anything in return for receiving its free ceasefire. Last year, during Ramadan, there was also less intensity to the fighting in Gaza, but the IDF was still operating against Hamas. At the moment, Hamas controls most of Gaza and thinks it has won the war. It assumes Israel’s current leadership doesn’t want to remove Hamas and that Israel prefers to claim that it will defeat Hamas but not actually go back into Gaza.
Hamas also assumes it can hold onto the hostages for years into the future, releasing a few here and there to receive months of ceasefire each time and then dragging out negotiations between the ceasefires as it is doing now.
Hamas believes that inertia now favors Hamas. It likely assumes that only when elections happen in Israel or there is some incentive for Jerusalem to return to fighting, that there might be another war, and otherwise, Hamas can do as it wants. Hamas has already murdered more than 1,000 people, more Jews in one day than at any time since the Shoah, and it continues to run Gaza after 17 months. It thinks Israel is incapable of defeating it or that interests in Israel prefer to keep Hamas in power and not replace it. Hamas will have to wait and see if this is the case. Until then, it will continue to float various hostage release concepts, as it did throughout 2024, to try to create short news cycles and controversy that favor Hamas as it stalls the negotiations.