From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post). The dashboard refreshes automatically on the first business day of each month when the ISM PMI is released, so it provides a real-time pulse on recession risk. Source: recessionrisk.com accessed 7/6/2026. Note this is the risk of a recession now (well...